CS2 Case Odds & Skin Rarity Drop Rates
Valve publishes the rarity odds for its weapon cases. They are the only primary-source figures in this category, so we start there.
| Rarity | Chance per opening | About once every |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 79.92% | 1 / 1.3 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 1 / 6.3 |
| Classified | 3.20% | 1 / 31 |
| Covert | 0.64% | 1 / 156 |
| Rare Special | 0.26% | 1 / 385 |
One rare item, most of the value
Knives and gloves carry most of a case's value but land about once in 385 openings. A short session is therefore far more likely to end below average than above it.
Third-party cases are different
Case sites design their own cases, item pools and prices. Always read the drop table on the case itself; Valve's figures do not apply to them.
What provably fair adds
It lets you confirm a roll was not changed after the fact. It does not set or reveal the payout percentage.
What a bonus adds
Extra balance. The odds of every item stay exactly the same.